Mom's Cheesecake
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 89
Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |
| 26/03/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 10/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |