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3

Noroomformischief

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 85

Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 17/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS17/08C6C6 @ Churchill Downs 17/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 65 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 65 par17/09C6OR 65C6 @ Keeneland 22/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 79 · 1m110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/10/2025 · OR 79 par22/10C6OR 79C6 @ Keeneland 17/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 81 · 7f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 81 par17/04C6OR 81C9 @ Churchill Downs 14/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 68 · 7f 118 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 68 par14/06C9OR 68C9 @ Ellis Park 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 62 · 6f 119 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 62 par17/07C9OR 62C7 @ Churchill Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 6f Gd 118 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 81 par10/09C7OR 81projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Churchill Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-07-17Ellis Park?1st3rd−2
2026-06-14Churchill Downs?6th8th−2
2026-04-17Keeneland?8th7th+1
2025-10-22Keeneland?2nd1st+1
2025-09-17Churchill Downs?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0817/0410/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength99%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/08/20253rd11/486%75%-0.11
17/09/20252nd13/266%90%+0.24
22/10/20252nd7/282%89%+0.07
17/04/20268th16/116%0%-0.16
14/06/20266th5/174%38%-0.36
17/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
10/09/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57