Sweet Bebsi
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 87
Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 21/12/2025 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 01/03/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |