10
Caragogo
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 94
Keeneland · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +13.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 07/05/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |