11
Doctrine
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 107
Keeneland · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
36%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -12.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |