4
Lahainaluna
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 92
Keeneland · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength64%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |