6
Michael's Cove
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 98
Keeneland · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-02-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 19/12/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |