7
My Boy Tony
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 107
Keeneland · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength83%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 03/07/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 26/07/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 04/09/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |