3
Quiet Mischief
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 90
Keeneland · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 27% | -0.49 |
| 12/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |