12
The Brigade
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 103
Keeneland · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
30%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2024 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 25/01/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |