10
Contrary Chieftain
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 75
Keeneland · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength7%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 09/11/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 08/01/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 19/01/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 11/09/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |