Manfredi
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 84
Keeneland · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-05-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2024 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 30/01/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 13/03/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 16/04/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 21/05/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 24/06/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 08/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |