Mena
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 96
Keeneland · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-02-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-11-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 20/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 20/11/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 16/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |