1
National Eclipse
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89
Keeneland · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 06/09/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 16/10/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 17/01/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 63% | -0.29 |