Special Justice
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 97
Keeneland · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-11-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 06/03/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 01/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 20/03/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 07/09/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |