5
Vino Couragio
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 71
Keeneland · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 25/01/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/03/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |