3
Velvet Beretta
2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 84
Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | BHA90 | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -32.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |