10
Crawford
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 78
Keeneland · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 14/06/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 19/07/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 20/08/2025 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 06/09/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |