5
Fast Gun
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 89
Keeneland · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
77%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -10.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |