5
Alpenglow
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 92
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 2nd | +4 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength4%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 21/02/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |