IvyArcIvyArc
11

Cadenza

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 100

Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength92%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 28/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 82 · 5f110y Fm 119 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 82 par28/08C6OR 82C6 @ Turfway Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 83 · 6f 122 · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 83 parC6 @ Turfway Park 22/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 90 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark22/02/2026 · OR 90 par22/02C6OR 90C5 @ Turfway Park 29/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 96 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 96 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 97 · 6f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 97 par9/05C5OR 97C1 @ Saratoga 07/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 95 · 5f110y Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 95 parC1 @ Saratoga 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 97 · 5f110y Yie 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 97 par18/07C1OR 97C5 @ Saratoga 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 98 · 5f110y Yie 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 98 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 102 · 6f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 102 par5/09C?OR 102projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kentucky Downs?8th3rd+5
2026-08-15Saratoga?1st0th+1
2026-07-18Saratoga?3rd-2th+4
2026-06-07Saratoga?3rd-2th+4
2026-05-09Belmont At The Big A?1st0th+1
2026-03-29Turfway Park?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0829/0318/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
21/12/20253rd10/382%80%-0.02
22/02/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
29/03/20262nd5/696%86%-0.10
09/05/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
07/06/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02
18/07/20263rd10/147%50%+0.03
15/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
05/09/20268th20/10%36%+0.36