3
Gerrards Cross
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 97
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -11.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/07/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 10/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |