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Light Won Up

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 102

Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#14

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.1
Today:
Class gap: +2.9
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Santa Anita 16/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 4f110y Fas 11916/05C6C5 @ Churchill Downs 29/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 98 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/06/2025 · OR 98 parC5 @ Santa Anita 08/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 76 · 6f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 76 par8/02C5OR 76C1 @ Keeneland 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 85 parC1 @ Santa Anita 10/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 88 · 6f110y Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 88 par10/05C1OR 88C5 @ Santa Anita 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 102 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 102 parC2 @ Del Mar 19/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS19/07C2C0 @ Kentucky Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 104 · 6f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 104 par5/09C?OR 104projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kentucky Downs?5th0th+5
2026-07-19Del Mar?8th4th+3
2026-06-06Santa Anita?4th3rd+1
2026-05-10Santa Anita?2nd-3th+4
2026-04-10Keeneland?4th-1th+4
2026-02-08Santa Anita?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0510/0419/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
29/06/20256th10/382%29%-0.54
08/02/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
10/04/20264th10/147%63%+0.15
10/05/20262nd6/492%89%-0.03
06/06/20264th15/890%63%-0.28
19/07/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
05/09/20265th20/10%64%+0.64