2
Booth
5yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 110
Keeneland · Race 7 - Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Lone Star | ? | 9th | 14th | −4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2025-07-20 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 12/04/2025 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 17/05/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/06/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 20/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 27/06/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |