5
Classic Of Course
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 102
Keeneland · Race 7 - Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -4.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 10-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |