IvyArcIvyArc
8

Hymn

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 107

Keeneland · Race 7 - Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Churchill Downs 30/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 102 · 6f 118 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 102 par30/10C5OR 102C5 @ Oaklawn Park 19/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 101 · 6f 122 · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 101 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 06/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 102 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 102 par6/02C5OR 102C5 @ Oaklawn Park 01/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 97 · 6f 123 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 97 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 104 · 6f 119 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 104 par10/04C5OR 104C6 @ Churchill Downs 17/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 103 · 7f Slo 123 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 103 parC5 @ Laurel Park 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 104 · 6f Fas 126 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 104 par27/06C5OR 104C0 @ Saratoga 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 109 · 6f 122 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 109 parC0 @ Saratoga 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 110 · 7f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 110 par29/08C?OR 110projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Saratoga?1st1st+0
2026-07-25Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2026-06-27Laurel Park?1st6th−4
2026-05-17Churchill Downs?1st7th−5
2026-04-10Oaklawn Park?1st7th−5
2026-03-01Oaklawn Park?4th10th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/101/0327/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/10/20256th3/184%44%-0.40
19/12/20255th7/282%43%-0.39
06/02/20264th15/261%73%+0.12
01/03/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
10/04/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
17/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
27/06/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
25/07/20262nd7/282%80%-0.02
29/08/20261st8/158%100%+0.42