9
Jack's Promise
4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 96
Keeneland · Race 7 - Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: -4.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-12-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-11-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 13th | −5 |
| 2025-10-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 03/08/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 30/10/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 23/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/12/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |