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3

Little Thunder

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 107

Keeneland · Race 7 - Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 1.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -5.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 24/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 7f Fas 12224/12C6C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 31/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 96 · 7f Fas 122 · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 96 par31/01C6OR 96C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 14/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 99 · 6f 122 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 99 par14/02C6OR 99C6 @ Saratoga 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 99 · 6f Fas 126 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 99 par7/09C6OR 99projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Saratoga?1st7th−5
2026-02-14Tampa Bay Downs?1st7th−5
2026-01-31Tampa Bay Downs?2nd8th−5
2025-12-24Tampa Bay Downs?1st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1231/0114/027/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -7.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/12/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
31/01/20262nd6/492%90%-0.02
14/02/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
07/09/20261st2/189%100%+0.11