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Mad House

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 112

Keeneland · Race 7 - Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Canterbury Park 01/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 85 · 7f110y Fm 119 · below its mark01/06/2025 · OR 85 par1/06C6OR 85C6 @ Canterbury Park 29/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 86 · 5f110y Fas 119 · beat its mark29/06/2025 · OR 86 parC5 @ Canterbury Park 24/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 95 · 6f Slo 119 · beat its mark24/07/2025 · OR 95 par24/07C5OR 95C6 @ Canterbury Park 24/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 103 · 6f 117 · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 103 parC0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 106 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 106 par1/11C?OR 106C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 06/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 103 · 6f 118 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 103 parC3 @ Oaklawn Park 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f 11811/04C3C1 @ Churchill Downs 30/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 106 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 106 parC0 @ Del Mar 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 109 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 109 par26/07C?OR 109projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Del Mar?4th4th+0
2026-05-30Churchill Downs?5th5th−0
2026-04-11Oaklawn Park?1st4th−3
2026-03-06Tampa Bay Downs?1st7th−5
2025-11-01Del Mar?14th14th+0
2025-08-24Canterbury Park?1st7th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0624/0811/0426/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength66%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/06/20255th5/287%43%-0.44
29/06/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
24/07/20251st1/599%100%+0.01
24/08/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
01/11/202514th25/10%0%0.00
06/03/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
11/04/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
30/05/20265th10/382%20%-0.62
26/07/20264th16/116%57%+0.41