Nakatomi
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 115
Keeneland · Race 7 - Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-03-28 | Meydan | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | ? | 9th | 9th | +0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2024 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 02/11/2024 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 05/04/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 07/06/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 19/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 01/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |