4
Verifire
4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 110
Keeneland · Race 7 - Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: -3.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2025-06-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Pimlico | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 29/06/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/08/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |