11
Elegante Miz
2yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 89
Keeneland · Race 8 - Jessamine S. Presented By Keeneland Sales - Grade 2 · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -4.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-07-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +21.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |