2
Mel Went Home
2yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 85
Keeneland · Race 8 - Jessamine S. Presented By Keeneland Sales - Grade 2 · 1m 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -5.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 12th | −6 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 10th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |