8
Elewene
2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 92
Keeneland · Race 9 - Darley Alcibiades Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 1.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -5.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 9th | −6 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 10th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |