IvyArcIvyArc
1

Emphatic

2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 90

Keeneland · Race 9 - Darley Alcibiades Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

16%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -5.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 6f Fas 11925/07C6C5 @ Monmouth Park 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 91 · 1m 118 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 91 par29/08C5OR 91projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Monmouth Park?1st6th−4
2026-07-25Colonial Downs?1st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +4.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
29/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11