3
Ever Forward
2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 86
Keeneland · Race 9 - Darley Alcibiades Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -5.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |