5
Summer Starlet
2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 101
Keeneland · Race 9 - Darley Alcibiades Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
59%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -44.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |