Beale Street Boy
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 83
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | +1 | ||
| 2025-12-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 10/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 09/11/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 22/12/2025 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 27/06/2026 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 22% | -0.63 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |