6
Freedom Glider
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 84
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 73% | -0.15 |
| 16/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 26/12/2025 | 9th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 56% | -0.33 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |