Punxsutawney Phil
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/10/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 16/01/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 70% | +0.04 |
| 08/03/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |