5
Backnthewoods
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 83
Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |