The Count Is On
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86
Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 06/08/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 26/10/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 10/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |