2
Win No Joke
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 80
Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength24%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 12/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |