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5yo Gelding · 9-0
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2023 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 13/01/2024 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 08/06/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 10/07/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 04/09/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 78% | -0.14 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 56% | -0.37 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 57% | -0.38 |