8
Fortune Hill
3yo Gelding · 8-11
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength61%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-05-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-05-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength82%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 24/05/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 30/07/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 12/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |