2

Honorary American

4yo Gelding · 9-0

Laurel Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength85%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 8.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 24/05/2024 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS24/05C61 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2024 · Pos 24th of 27 · OR - · 5f GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS19/061C9 @ Belmont At The Big A 27/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 86 · 6f Fm 118 · below its mark27/06/2025 · OR 86 par27/06C9OR 86C6 @ Charles Town 30/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 78 · 6f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 78 par30/08C6OR 78C9 @ Charles Town 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 67 · 7f Fas 126 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 67 par11/09C9OR 67projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Charles Town?2nd2nd0
2026-08-30Charles Town?8th5th+3
2025-06-27Belmont At The Big A?7th7th0
2024-06-19Royal Ascot124th15th+8
2024-05-24Belmont At The Big A?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0519/0627/0630/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength25%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20243rd10/1195%60%-0.35
19/06/202424th50/10%12%+0.12
27/06/20257th2/189%33%-0.56
30/08/20268th5/174%22%-0.51
11/09/20262nd11/1094%83%-0.11