10
Vida
3yo Gelding · 8-11
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength71%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-07-24 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-26 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-02-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 8/13 | 97% | 0% | -0.97 |
| 22/02/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/7 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |