Couches Burning
3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 76
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -25.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 11/10 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |