9
El Junior
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 72
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 09/05/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |