Airbrush

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 71

Laurel Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Colonial Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-02	Colonial Downs	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8
2026-07-11	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-06-14	Laurel Park	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength46%

Delivery trend -11.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/06/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	82%	+0.34
11/07/2026	3rd	9/4	88%	71%	-0.17
02/08/2026	8th	4/1	79%	13%	-0.66
30/08/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12